We took data from a sample of our U.S. enterprise ecommerce customers up to and including January 2017, and used the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing function to model 2017 revenue trends by device. The findings show that mobile will drive more retail revenue than desktop for Black Friday 2017 – a reality that retailers can’t afford to ignore.
Not every retailer will experience the revenue flip at the same time. Mobile leaders will see it happen as early as Q3 this year, and the median will see it happen in Q4 2017. Mobile laggards won’t see mobile revenue surpass desktop until Q3 2019 – that is, if they survive that long.
There’s $61.6B in mobile revenue on the table for the 2017 holiday shopping season (a.k.a. Q4) – that’s a 67% year-over-year increase in mobile revenue. Meanwhile, desktop and tablet will decrease 12%. The growth opportunity is in mobile, and those who jump on this trend will reap the rewards. Leaders will see 88% more mobile revenue than laggards in Q4 – and 30% more total ecommerce revenue.
Mobile revenue will dominate by Black Friday 2017 – the question is, will you be one of the retailers riding the wave, or scrambling to stay afloat?
Download the 2017 Q1 Mobile Commerce Insights Report to see all the data, and get tips on how you can can make mobile your dominant source of online revenue this year.